Featured Journal Entry

IS ALL THE GOOD NEWS PRICED IN?

Last week we discussed whether stock prices might be reflecting peak optimism. In that commentary we noted that while sentiment may be overly optimistic and a pickup in volatility would be totally normal, strong breadth measures suggest stocks still may have more upside. This week we tackle that same topic of peak optimism, but by...
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Journal Entries

Deficit? What Deficit?
The U.S. presidential election is only ten weeks away, and one key topic has been largely absent on the campaign trail in this “unusual” election year: the deficit. While both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have floated plans to cut and/ or...
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Earnings Update: We Were Hoping for More
Second quarter earnings season has been okay, but we were hoping for more. S&P 500 earnings are tracking to a 2.6% year-over-year decline in the second quarter of 2016, which means the earnings recession is poised to continue. The quarterly...
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Overcoming a Wall of Worries
With weaker than expected jobs growth in May, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) recent disappointing economic forecast, negative interest rates around the globe, and the Brexit, the list of worries for investors continues to pile up. The U.S. economic...
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All About the Dot Plots
As the fourth of eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings of 2016 approaches later this week, the market and the Federal Reserve (Fed) again remain deeply divided over the timing and pace of Fed rate hikes. The FOMC’s latest forecast ...
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Beige Book: Window on Main Street
The latest Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing near its long-term trend, and that the drag from a stronger dollar and weaker energy prices is fading. However, oil production — which has continued to decline despite the run-up...
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