Featured Journal Entry


Last week we discussed whether stock prices might be reflecting peak optimism. In that commentary we noted that while sentiment may be overly optimistic and a pickup in volatility would be totally normal, strong breadth measures suggest stocks still may have more upside. This week we tackle that same topic of peak optimism, but by...
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Journal Entries

Tiptoe Through the Tulips
The case for increasing European investments is getting stronger, as we evaluate the fundamentals, valuations, and to a lesser extent the technicals. Throughout most of the region, we are seeing improvement in the economic data and most importantly,...
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Cracking Oil
Patterns of energy production and consumption are changing, both because of and despite political actions; this week we look at some of the potential longer-term, structural changes to the energy market. Energy, and particularly oil, is the one...
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The Valentine’s Day Index
The impact of economics on everyday life isn’t always clear, but the week ahead is different. Tuesday marks the fourth-busiest shopping holiday of the year — Valentine’s Day, and the following day sees the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI)...
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Fourth Quarter 2016 Earnings Preview
Fourth quarter 2016 earnings season gets underway this week (January 9–13), and it looks like it will be another good one. With Alcoa no longer the unofficial kick off of the earnings season, we will consider Friday the start of the season when...
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Holiday Shopping Preview
This week we preview the holiday shopping season. Although the market’s attention has been squarely on the election for the past several months, we should not forget how important this time of year is for the U.S. economy — consumer spending...
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What a Week
This week we reflect on Donald Trump’s surprising victory and the stock market reaction. With Election Day behind us and the benefit of several days to digest the news, we reflect back on what was quite a week for the stock market. Here we offer...
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