Featured Journal Entry


Last week we discussed whether stock prices might be reflecting peak optimism. In that commentary we noted that while sentiment may be overly optimistic and a pickup in volatility would be totally normal, strong breadth measures suggest stocks still may have more upside. This week we tackle that same topic of peak optimism, but by...
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Journal Entries

Earnings Update: End of a Long Drought
Third quarter earnings results mark the end of a long earnings drought. It was not quite as long as the Cubs’ World Series drought (107 years), but we — like Cubs fans — are glad it’s over. Like the Cubs, corporate America has ended its...
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Halloween Special: What might scare markets
It’s Halloween, so what else could we do but write about what might scare the markets? We know from the financial media, measures of investor sentiment, and mutual fund outflows from equities and into bonds that investor nervousness is widespread....
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Third Quarter 2016 Earnings
We believe the earnings recession may have ended in the third quarter of 2016. As the drags from sharp energy declines and a strong U.S. dollar continue to abate, backed by a pickup in economic growth, the S&P 500 could potentially produce a...
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Five Forecasters: Few Warning Signs
The Five Forecasters favor the continuation of the current economic expansion and bull market. The Five Forecasters are five indicators that, collectively, have historically signaled increasing fragility of the U.S. economy and a transition to the...
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EM Earnings: Beginning to Emerge
By nature, emerging markets (EM) have greater risks, but they also have attractive attributes relative to developed foreign markets. For most markets, earnings have been stagnant while valuations — what investors are willing to pay for those...
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Corporate Beige Book: Q2 Offers Few Signs of Improvement
Corporate sentiment improved little based on our analysis of earnings conference call transcripts for second quarter earnings season. The message from our earnings recap commentary three weeks ago, “We Were Hoping for More,” is also appropriate...
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