Featured Journal Entry

Q2 EARNINGS: MUDDLING THROUGH

Second quarter earnings season gets rolling this week. Consensus estimates are calling for a modest year-over-year decline in S&P 500 Index earnings amid the downshift in U.S. and international economic growth, tariffs, and ongoing trade tensions. Quarterly earnings almost always beat quarter-end consensus estimates — this quarter...
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Journal Entries

DOWNSIDE RISK REMAINS
Stocks fell last week, and many blamed the drop on high stock valuations, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s gloomy outlook, and rising US-China tensions. Perhaps investors also are increasingly skeptical about prospects for a smooth V-shaped...
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Time for a Pause?
Stocks have had a historic run amid increasingly negative headlines. Historically, stocks have tended to lead the economy, and while a second-half rebound may be likely, some equity weakness over the coming months is also possible. The historically...
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BIG NEWS AND NEW FORECASTS
The last week of April was a big news week. A very weak first quarter GDP highlighted a busy economic calendar. Investors digested a flurry of earnings reports, including some of the biggest names, such as Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Microsoft....
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WHAT HAPPENED TO OIL?
Negative oil prices have dominated headlines recently. A combination of oversupply, lack of demand, and a lack of storage capacity resulted in temporarily negative oil prices, where holders of a futures contract were paying others to take delivery of...
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IS THE EARNINGS BAR LOW ENOUGH?
This earnings season will be unlike any other, as travel restrictions and lockdowns related to COVID-19 have impacted results dramatically. The biggest economic hits came in mid-March, however, and won’t be fully captured in first quarter results....
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A RECESSION IS HERE
The economy has halted for the past several weeks, and with it the longest economic expansion ever has ended, meaning we are now in a recession. What makes this recession unique is the government intentionally brought it on, with the chances for an...
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