Featured Journal Entry

Q2 EARNINGS: MUDDLING THROUGH

Second quarter earnings season gets rolling this week. Consensus estimates are calling for a modest year-over-year decline in S&P 500 Index earnings amid the downshift in U.S. and international economic growth, tariffs, and ongoing trade tensions. Quarterly earnings almost always beat quarter-end consensus estimates — this quarter...
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Journal Entries

THE CURIOUS CASE OF NEGATIVE YIELDS
There’s a growing pile of negative-yielding debt around the world amid extraordinary monetary policy initiatives. While maintaining respect for global money flows, we believe the combination of economic fundamentals, domestic monetary policy, and a...
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CORPORATE EARNINGS OUTLOOK
We recently lowered our 2019 S&P 500 Index earnings growth forecast. In our August 19 Weekly Market Commentary, “Tweaking Forecasts,” we lowered our 2019 expectations for growth domestic product (GDP), the 10-year Treasury yield, and S&P...
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U.S. TREASURIES AND THE YIELD CURVE
We recently reduced our year-end forecast range for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from 2.5–2.75% to 1.75–2%. This significant reduction reflects what we consider the many somewhat curious aspects of the domestic and global macroeconomic...
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LPL’S U.S. REAL GDP FORECAST CHANGE
We have lowered our projections for U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, and operating earnings for the S&P 500 Index in 2019, as we noted in the August 19 Weekly Market Commentary: Tweaking Forecasts, and...
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TWEAKING OUR FORECASTS
We are tweaking our 2019 forecasts to reflect increased risk to economic growth and corporate profits from the ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China. We are maintaining our year-end fair value target on the S&P 500 of 3,000...
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THE NEW (AB)NORMAL
Stocks endured significant volatility last week but showed some resilience Wednesday, August 7, when the S&P 500 Index dropped as much as 2% intraday before rallying back late to close slightly positive. Stocks ended the week near flat, putting...
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