Featured Journal Entry


Last week we discussed whether stock prices might be reflecting peak optimism. In that commentary we noted that while sentiment may be overly optimistic and a pickup in volatility would be totally normal, strong breadth measures suggest stocks still may have more upside. This week we tackle that same topic of peak optimism, but by...
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Journal Entries

The $4.2 Trillion Dilemma
Minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, released last Wednesday, sparked selling of stocks and bonds, as investors read that the Fed may reduce its $4.2 trillion balance sheet. Minutes also revealed that “some Fed officials...
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Checking in on Some Trump Trades
Checking in on some “Trump trades.” The election outcome and resulting expectations for fiscal policy have caused several shifts in market leadership toward areas most sensitive to these policies. Policy is not the only factor to consider when...
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April Preview
April 2017 is a busy month, with several potentially market-moving global events to monitor closely. 2017 has seen global equity prices soar to new highs, with the S&P 500 Index up 5.5% in the first quarter, the best performance to start a year...
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The Stock Market's Final Four Factors
The NCAA College Basketball Final Four is set. Gonzaga, North Carolina, Oregon, and South Carolina are headed to Phoenix, Arizona to determine this year’s college basketball national champion. In that spirit, following our “Sweet 16” commentary...
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President Trump's First 50 (or so) Days
Since FDR first popularized the concept at the start of his first term in 1933, the first 100 days of a president’s term is often seen as a benchmark date for early accomplishments that set the tone for the presidency. The first 100 days are...
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Corporate Beige Book: Better Sentiment and Lots of Tax Talk
It should come as little surprise that sentiment among corporate executives improved during the fourth quarter of 2016. We saw relatively more use of strong and positive words compared with weak and negative words in our analysis of earnings...
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