Featured Journal Entry

Q2 EARNINGS: MUDDLING THROUGH

Second quarter earnings season gets rolling this week. Consensus estimates are calling for a modest year-over-year decline in S&P 500 Index earnings amid the downshift in U.S. and international economic growth, tariffs, and ongoing trade tensions. Quarterly earnings almost always beat quarter-end consensus estimates — this quarter...
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Journal Entries

HAVE WE HIT THE EARNINGS BOTTOM?
While earnings declined year over year in the third quarter, results still exceeded expectations. Tariffs, ongoing policy uncertainty, and slower global growth have led to this earnings lull, but we remain optimistic that earnings growth bottomed...
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RECESSION WATCH
Why would we write a report about recession with the S&P 500 at record highs? Consider it a check-up. Just because you feel good doesn’t mean you skip your annual physical at the doctor. We check in on some of our favorite leading indicators to...
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A TALE OF TWO ECONOMIES
Consumer spending has powered the U.S. economy this year as businesses curb investments, waiting for trade and geopolitical uncertainty to fade. We expect that growth will likely slow next year as companies continue to sit out this part of the cycle;...
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BEST SIX MONTHS OF THE YEAR
We have all heard the old Wall Street adage, “Sell in May and go away.” The six-month period from May through October historically has been the worst time of year to own stocks, while the six months between November and April historically have...
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MARKET TRICKS AND TREATS
The U.S.-China trade conflict remains a wild card for U.S. and global economies, and it headlines our list of concerns. The United States and China have reportedly reached a verbal “truce,” and by all indications a phase-one agreement may be...
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SEASONAL (TAIL)WINDS
The stock market has started October on a bumpy path. Many global issues remain unresolved, but seasonal forces, sound fundamentals, and breakthroughs on the trade and geopolitical fronts could help sustain the S&P 500 Index at record highs....
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