Featured Journal Entry

Q2 EARNINGS: MUDDLING THROUGH

Second quarter earnings season gets rolling this week. Consensus estimates are calling for a modest year-over-year decline in S&P 500 Index earnings amid the downshift in U.S. and international economic growth, tariffs, and ongoing trade tensions. Quarterly earnings almost always beat quarter-end consensus estimates — this quarter...
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Journal Entries

LPL’S U.S. REAL GDP FORECAST CHANGE
We have lowered our projections for U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, and operating earnings for the S&P 500 Index in 2019, as we noted in the August 19 Weekly Market Commentary: Tweaking Forecasts, and...
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TWEAKING OUR FORECASTS
We are tweaking our 2019 forecasts to reflect increased risk to economic growth and corporate profits from the ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China. We are maintaining our year-end fair value target on the S&P 500 of 3,000...
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THE NEW (AB)NORMAL
Stocks endured significant volatility last week but showed some resilience Wednesday, August 7, when the S&P 500 Index dropped as much as 2% intraday before rallying back late to close slightly positive. Stocks ended the week near flat, putting...
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THE FED’S COURSE CORRECTION
The Federal Reserve (Fed) completed its U-turn in policy last week. Policymakers announced a 25-basis point (0.25%) rate cut July 31, its first in 10 years [Figure 1]. Rate cuts have been a sobering reality in investors’ short-term memories, as the...
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SEASONAL SLUMP?
August has been one of the worst months for the stock market historically. In fact, it has been the worst month on average for the past 10 years, with the S&P 500 Index down an average of 0.78% for that month [Figure 1]. Last week’s 3.1% slide...
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MORE ON FED RATE CUT IMPLICATIONS
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to start an easing cycle this week, which has several investment implications. We have written a fair amount about the Fed’s U-turn in policy stance this year, including last week’s Weekly Market Commentary....
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