Featured Journal Entry

Q2 EARNINGS: MUDDLING THROUGH

Second quarter earnings season gets rolling this week. Consensus estimates are calling for a modest year-over-year decline in S&P 500 Index earnings amid the downshift in U.S. and international economic growth, tariffs, and ongoing trade tensions. Quarterly earnings almost always beat quarter-end consensus estimates — this quarter...
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Journal Entries

LESSONS FROM THE PAST DECADE
As we begin 2020, we’ve had a chance to reflect on what was an unprecedented decade for financial markets. The 2010s taught long-term investors two important lessons: to ignore short-term market noise and to be prepared for volatility. It was a...
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2019 HITS AND MISSES
2019 was a difficult year to forecast after 2018 ended with the worst December since the Great Depression. While our positive stock market outlook proved too conservative, we are pleased to report we got more right than wrong for 2019. Here we recap...
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PROFIT GROWTH KEY FOR 2020 STOCKS
Clarity from the phase-one trade deal with China and United Kingdom election results could help shift stock market performance drivers more toward investing fundamentals in 2020. We expect stocks to appreciate in line with earnings growth next year,...
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BETTER DAYS AHEAD FOR BONDS
2019 was a baffling year for bonds. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to a three-year low, and the yield curve flashed ominous signals about the economic outlook. We’ve seen some improvement in long-term yields since the September low, but we...
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AMBLING ALONG IN 2020
U.S. economic growth has slowed in 2019. However, the economy is still growing, and we believe it will continue growing through 2020. As we highlighted in our Outlook 2020: Bringing Markets Into Focus, we’re projecting real GDP growth of 1.75% in...
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TECHNICALS CHECK-IN
Market momentum, global participation, and technical support all provide reasons to think gains may not be over for 2019. While volatility is always possible, record highs need not be feared, and seasonal tendencies may remain a tailwind. To continue...
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