Featured Journal Entry

IS ALL THE GOOD NEWS PRICED IN?

Last week we discussed whether stock prices might be reflecting peak optimism. In that commentary we noted that while sentiment may be overly optimistic and a pickup in volatility would be totally normal, strong breadth measures suggest stocks still may have more upside. This week we tackle that same topic of peak optimism, but by...
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Journal Entries

PROSPECTS FOR A SWOOSH-SHAPED RECOVERY
The strongest 50-day rally in the S&P 500 Index in over 70 years has sent a signal that the economic recovery is gaining steam and may look more like a “V” than a “U,” a square root, checkmark, or swoosh. We assess the probabilities of...
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STOCKS RALLY AND ROLL
The rally continued as the S&P 500 Index closed out May on the positive side. The disconnect between stocks and the economy generated widespread concern among some investors. At the same time, reopening optimism and massive stimulus overshadowed...
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EARNINGS SEASON'S MIXED RESULTS
First quarter earnings season offered something for everyone. On the positive side, corporate America produced solid results outside of the COVID-19 pandemic trouble spots, which included retailers, travel related businesses, and banks. At the same...
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DOWNSIDE RISK REMAINS
Stocks fell last week, and many blamed the drop on high stock valuations, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s gloomy outlook, and rising US-China tensions. Perhaps investors also are increasingly skeptical about prospects for a smooth V-shaped...
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Time for a Pause?
Stocks have had a historic run amid increasingly negative headlines. Historically, stocks have tended to lead the economy, and while a second-half rebound may be likely, some equity weakness over the coming months is also possible. The historically...
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BIG NEWS AND NEW FORECASTS
The last week of April was a big news week. A very weak first quarter GDP highlighted a busy economic calendar. Investors digested a flurry of earnings reports, including some of the biggest names, such as Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Microsoft....
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