Featured Journal Entry

IS ALL THE GOOD NEWS PRICED IN?

Last week we discussed whether stock prices might be reflecting peak optimism. In that commentary we noted that while sentiment may be overly optimistic and a pickup in volatility would be totally normal, strong breadth measures suggest stocks still may have more upside. This week we tackle that same topic of peak optimism, but by...
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Journal Entries

STALLING ECONOMIC RECOVERY MAY SLOW STOCK MARKET RALLY
Stock market weakness late last week caused investors to ask whether the long-awaited market pullback may be at hand. This week, we review the drivers of the market’s impressive rally back to the break-even point for the year, share our thoughts on...
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AN EARNINGS SEASON TO FORGET
This earnings season may be one to forget. We will see one of the biggest year-over-year quarterly declines in S&P 500 Index profits ever, and we will hear a lot about uncertainty facing corporate America as COVID19 continues to impact many...
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Election Preview
2020 is an election year, and as we get closer to November, we expect this to replace COVID-19 and the recession at the top of investors’ minds. The makeup of Congress may influence stock market performance, and how stocks and the economy perform...
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THE FUTURE OF FIXED INCOME
Although the US economic recovery has picked up and we expect yields to rise in the second half of 2020, structural forces may help limit the size of the move. The pandemic-driven demand shock, the Federal Reserve, and disinflationary pressures may...
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5 REASONS WE FAVOR US STOCKS
Among developed markets, we maintain our preference for US equities over international, but the bout of strong performance for the MSCI EAFE Index relative to the S&P 500 Index in late May through early June and the latest weakness in the US...
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Potential Paths For Stocks in the Second Half
Stocks staged perhaps the strongest rally in history—a more than 44% gain for the S&P 500 Index from March 23 through June 8—before pulling back about 6% late last week. With so much economic healing ahead of us and a still-uncertain path for...
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