Featured Journal Entry

Q2 EARNINGS: MUDDLING THROUGH

Second quarter earnings season gets rolling this week. Consensus estimates are calling for a modest year-over-year decline in S&P 500 Index earnings amid the downshift in U.S. and international economic growth, tariffs, and ongoing trade tensions. Quarterly earnings almost always beat quarter-end consensus estimates — this quarter...
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Journal Entries

The $4.2 Trillion Dilemma
Minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, released last Wednesday, sparked selling of stocks and bonds, as investors read that the Fed may reduce its $4.2 trillion balance sheet. Minutes also revealed that “some Fed officials...
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Checking in on Some Trump Trades
Checking in on some “Trump trades.” The election outcome and resulting expectations for fiscal policy have caused several shifts in market leadership toward areas most sensitive to these policies. Policy is not the only factor to consider when...
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April Preview
April 2017 is a busy month, with several potentially market-moving global events to monitor closely. 2017 has seen global equity prices soar to new highs, with the S&P 500 Index up 5.5% in the first quarter, the best performance to start a year...
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The Stock Market's Final Four Factors
The NCAA College Basketball Final Four is set. Gonzaga, North Carolina, Oregon, and South Carolina are headed to Phoenix, Arizona to determine this year’s college basketball national champion. In that spirit, following our “Sweet 16” commentary...
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President Trump's First 50 (or so) Days
Since FDR first popularized the concept at the start of his first term in 1933, the first 100 days of a president’s term is often seen as a benchmark date for early accomplishments that set the tone for the presidency. The first 100 days are...
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Corporate Beige Book: Better Sentiment and Lots of Tax Talk
It should come as little surprise that sentiment among corporate executives improved during the fourth quarter of 2016. We saw relatively more use of strong and positive words compared with weak and negative words in our analysis of earnings...
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