Featured Journal Entry

IS ALL THE GOOD NEWS PRICED IN?

Last week we discussed whether stock prices might be reflecting peak optimism. In that commentary we noted that while sentiment may be overly optimistic and a pickup in volatility would be totally normal, strong breadth measures suggest stocks still may have more upside. This week we tackle that same topic of peak optimism, but by...
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Journal Entries

Impressive Earnings Season
First quarter earnings season was excellent by almost any measure. The numbers were strong even without the boost from the new tax law. In this week’s commentary, we recap the outstanding near-complete first quarter earnings season, highlight some...
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Data Deluge Brings Good News (But Not Too Good)
The first week of May brought a deluge of economic data, including the April jobs report, key surveys on business activity, and some important readings on inflation. Add in a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting, and it’s fair to say that the most...
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Don't Sell in May
“Sell in May and go away” is probably the most widely cited stock market cliché in history. Every year a barrage of Wall Street commentaries, media stories, and investor questions flood in about the popular stock market adage. This week, we...
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A Closer Look at First Quarter GDP
The U.S. economy grew at 2.3% in the first quarter, better than the consensus estimate of 2.0%, but a slowdown from the near 3% growth of the prior three quarters. Persistent problems with seasonal adjustment of first quarter data and a lull in...
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Valuation Check-In
Time to check in on stock valuations. After providing our assessment of stock market fundamentals, sentiment, and technical conditions over the past few weeks, this week we turn to the last piece of our investment process: valuations. Here we will...
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Beige Book: Window on Main Street
BEIGE BOOK SUGGESTS CONTINUED MODERATE ECONOMIC GROWTH The latest edition of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book, released Wednesday, April 18, 2018, sustained a positive view of the U.S. economy. The Beige Book is a qualitative assessment of...
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