Featured Journal Entry

IS ALL THE GOOD NEWS PRICED IN?

Last week we discussed whether stock prices might be reflecting peak optimism. In that commentary we noted that while sentiment may be overly optimistic and a pickup in volatility would be totally normal, strong breadth measures suggest stocks still may have more upside. This week we tackle that same topic of peak optimism, but by...
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Journal Entries

Fed Preview: Connect the Dots
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to hike rates for the second time in 2018 at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, June 13. Given that the hike is all but priced in, the hike itself would mean little to markets....
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Time for Value to Shine?
When will value have its day in the sun? The growth style’s historic run of outperformance has continued this year, despite the emergence of several drivers that have traditionally served as catalysts for value stock outperformance. Generally,...
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Fed Minutes Wrap-Up, Inflation Target Symmetry
The Federal Reserve (Fed) reassured markets that its rake hike pace would remain gradual with the release of its May 1–2 policy meeting minutes last Wednesday. While the minutes revealed a generally upbeat assessment of the economy consistent with...
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Is Small Cap Strength Sustainable?
Small caps are having a strong year, with the Russell 2000 Index up nearly 6% year to date, versus about 2% for the S&P 500 Index. We came into this year expecting small cap outperformance, and after a slow start in early 2018 they have delivered...
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Five Keys to Emerging Market Outlook
We continue to prefer emerging market (EM) equities in tactical asset allocations. EM equities have given back strong early-year gains, pushing the MSCI EM Index into negative territory year to date on a total return basis. Many headwinds have...
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Oil Bounces but Still in Balance
Last June, oil hit an interim low of about $42.50 and started to climb. By May 7, 2018, it had crossed $70 for the first time since 2014. President Trump announced the U.S. world be withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal the next day. We view rising...
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