Featured Journal Entry

Q2 EARNINGS: MUDDLING THROUGH

Second quarter earnings season gets rolling this week. Consensus estimates are calling for a modest year-over-year decline in S&P 500 Index earnings amid the downshift in U.S. and international economic growth, tariffs, and ongoing trade tensions. Quarterly earnings almost always beat quarter-end consensus estimates — this quarter...
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Journal Entries

EM Earnings: Beginning to Emerge
By nature, emerging markets (EM) have greater risks, but they also have attractive attributes relative to developed foreign markets. For most markets, earnings have been stagnant while valuations — what investors are willing to pay for those...
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Corporate Beige Book: Q2 Offers Few Signs of Improvement
Corporate sentiment improved little based on our analysis of earnings conference call transcripts for second quarter earnings season. The message from our earnings recap commentary three weeks ago, “We Were Hoping for More,” is also appropriate...
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Deficit? What Deficit?
The U.S. presidential election is only ten weeks away, and one key topic has been largely absent on the campaign trail in this “unusual” election year: the deficit. While both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have floated plans to cut and/ or...
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Earnings Update: We Were Hoping for More
Second quarter earnings season has been okay, but we were hoping for more. S&P 500 earnings are tracking to a 2.6% year-over-year decline in the second quarter of 2016, which means the earnings recession is poised to continue. The quarterly...
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Overcoming a Wall of Worries
With weaker than expected jobs growth in May, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) recent disappointing economic forecast, negative interest rates around the globe, and the Brexit, the list of worries for investors continues to pile up. The U.S. economic...
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All About the Dot Plots
As the fourth of eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings of 2016 approaches later this week, the market and the Federal Reserve (Fed) again remain deeply divided over the timing and pace of Fed rate hikes. The FOMC’s latest forecast ...
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