Featured Journal Entry


Second quarter earnings season gets rolling this week. Consensus estimates are calling for a modest year-over-year decline in S&P 500 Index earnings amid the downshift in U.S. and international economic growth, tariffs, and ongoing trade tensions. Quarterly earnings almost always beat quarter-end consensus estimates — this quarter...
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Journal Entries

April Preview
April 2017 is a busy month, with several potentially market-moving global events to monitor closely. 2017 has seen global equity prices soar to new highs, with the S&P 500 Index up 5.5% in the first quarter, the best performance to start a year...
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The Stock Market's Final Four Factors
The NCAA College Basketball Final Four is set. Gonzaga, North Carolina, Oregon, and South Carolina are headed to Phoenix, Arizona to determine this year’s college basketball national champion. In that spirit, following our “Sweet 16” commentary...
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President Trump's First 50 (or so) Days
Since FDR first popularized the concept at the start of his first term in 1933, the first 100 days of a president’s term is often seen as a benchmark date for early accomplishments that set the tone for the presidency. The first 100 days are...
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Corporate Beige Book: Better Sentiment and Lots of Tax Talk
It should come as little surprise that sentiment among corporate executives improved during the fourth quarter of 2016. We saw relatively more use of strong and positive words compared with weak and negative words in our analysis of earnings...
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Tiptoe Through the Tulips
The case for increasing European investments is getting stronger, as we evaluate the fundamentals, valuations, and to a lesser extent the technicals. Throughout most of the region, we are seeing improvement in the economic data and most importantly,...
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Cracking Oil
Patterns of energy production and consumption are changing, both because of and despite political actions; this week we look at some of the potential longer-term, structural changes to the energy market. Energy, and particularly oil, is the one...
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