Read through the Weekly Market Commentary category's journal entries.

Halloween Special: What might scare markets

It’s Halloween, so what else could we do but write about what might scare the markets? We know from the financial media, measures of investor sentiment, and mutual fund outflows from equities and into bonds that investor nervousness is widespread....

Third Quarter 2016 Earnings

We believe the earnings recession may have ended in the third quarter of 2016. As the drags from sharp energy declines and a strong U.S. dollar continue to abate, backed by a pickup in economic growth, the S&P 500 could potentially produce a...

Five Forecasters: Few Warning Signs

The Five Forecasters favor the continuation of the current economic expansion and bull market. The Five Forecasters are five indicators that, collectively, have historically signaled increasing fragility of the U.S. economy and a transition to the...

EM Earnings: Beginning to Emerge

By nature, emerging markets (EM) have greater risks, but they also have attractive attributes relative to developed foreign markets. For most markets, earnings have been stagnant while valuations — what investors are willing to pay for those...

Corporate Beige Book: Q2 Offers Few Signs of Improvement

Corporate sentiment improved little based on our analysis of earnings conference call transcripts for second quarter earnings season. The message from our earnings recap commentary three weeks ago, “We Were Hoping for More,” is also appropriate...

Earnings Update: We Were Hoping for More

Second quarter earnings season has been okay, but we were hoping for more. S&P 500 earnings are tracking to a 2.6% year-over-year decline in the second quarter of 2016, which means the earnings recession is poised to continue. The quarterly...