Read through the Weekly Economic Commentary category's journal entries.

Capex Rising: Means, Motive, and Opportunity

Increased business capital expenditures, or “capex,” remain one of the most important pieces for improving the long-term growth trajectory of the U.S. economy. Capital expenditures help increase productivity, and improved productivity is the...

Fed Preview: Connect the Dots

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to hike rates for the second time in 2018 at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, June 13. Given that the hike is all but priced in, the hike itself would mean little to markets....

Fed Minutes Wrap-Up, Inflation Target Symmetry

The Federal Reserve (Fed) reassured markets that its rake hike pace would remain gradual with the release of its May 1–2 policy meeting minutes last Wednesday. While the minutes revealed a generally upbeat assessment of the economy consistent with...

Oil Bounces but Still in Balance

Last June, oil hit an interim low of about $42.50 and started to climb. By May 7, 2018, it had crossed $70 for the first time since 2014. President Trump announced the U.S. world be withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal the next day. We view rising...

Data Deluge Brings Good News (But Not Too Good)

The first week of May brought a deluge of economic data, including the April jobs report, key surveys on business activity, and some important readings on inflation. Add in a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting, and it’s fair to say that the most...

A Closer Look at First Quarter GDP

The U.S. economy grew at 2.3% in the first quarter, better than the consensus estimate of 2.0%, but a slowdown from the near 3% growth of the prior three quarters. Persistent problems with seasonal adjustment of first quarter data and a lull in...